This file contains supplemental estimates for: Up to 2.3 Million Young Adults Ages 19 to 24 Could Lose Medicaid Under OBBBA’s Work Requirements and More-Frequent Redeterminations. It displays state-level and aggregate results from the Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model (HIPSM) for adults aged 19 to 34. We compare scenarios in which the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) work requirements and more-frequent redeterminations have not been implemented (i.e., current law continues) with scenarios in which work requirements and more frequent redeterminations have both been implemented. There is substantial uncertainty about implementation decisions that states will make, so we show a range: coverage losses if a state makes high efforts to mitigate coverage disruptions and coverage losses if a state makes low mitigation efforts. The table shows differences in Medicaid expansion coverage due to work requirements and more frequent redeterminations under high and low mitigation efforts.
Dataset Info
- Modified 2026-09-14
- Release Date 2026-09-11
- Temporal Coverage
- License odc-by
- Granularity State, Nationwide
- Contact Name Urban Institute
- Contact Email [email protected]
- Public Access Level public
Urban Extended Info
- Modified 2026-09-14
- Release Date 2026-09-11
- Geographic Level
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Data Value
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Data Quality
This analysis has inherent limitations, including gaps in the available data for assessing compliance and exemptions, uncertainty around expansion enrollment totals and the composition of expansion enrollees for 2028, and behavioral responses under different scenarios. See Buettgens et al. (2026) for more detail on these issues. As more information becomes available, we may update our model.
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Urban Publications
- Citation Requirements Urban Institute. 2026. Changes in Medicaid Expansion Enrollment for Young Adults Ages 19 to 34 Under OBBBA Work Requirements and Six-Month Redeterminations. Accessible from https://datacatalog.urban.org/dataset/changes-medicaid-expansion-enrollment-young-adults-ages-19-34-under-obbba-work-requirements. Data originally sourced from HIPSM, developed at the Urban Institute, and made available under the ODC-BY 1.0 Attribution License.
