In 2026, governors of states and territories (and the mayor of Washington, DC) will nominate the next set of Opportunity Zones from a set of eligible census tracts. These selections can be informed by how investment flowed to the first round of OZs. Available national data indicate that many OZs received no OZ investment, while some received a substantial portion. There is no public data at the census tract level nationally, but the state of Ohio collected these data for its conforming state OZ program. We used the Ohio OZ data to build a model of which eligible tracts across the US are more or less likely to attract OZ investment. And since not all tracts that would attract high OZ investment have significant economic need, we also classify tracts on this basis.

Our Opportunity Zone Tool sorts census tracts into three potential categories: "Less likely to attract OZ investment," "More likely to attract OZ investment, with larger impact," and "Likely to attract capital even without OZs." We also include data on socioeconomic characteristics of each tract to aid in decision-making.