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Estimating Confidence Intervals in a Tax Microsimulation Model

In "Estimating Confidence Intervals in a Tax Microsimulation Model", we calculate the confidence intervals for a large tax microsimulation model. This data set contains all the appendix tables for the paper. We apply the bootstrapping methodology to examine the Tax Policy Center’s microsimulation distributional estimates of five alternative tax policy proposals if implemented in 2019. These proposals are (i) a partial restoration of the personal exemption eliminated by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, (ii) an increase in the standard deduction, (iii) an increase in the top statutory income tax rate, (iv) replacing the current-law farm loss deduction with a revenue-neutral refundable tax credit based on the total farm loss, and (v) a rescission of the tax-free treatment of interest accruing from certain government bonds.

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Robert McClelland, Surachai Khitatrakun, Chenxi Lu
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Urban Institute
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Urban Institute. 2019. Estimating Confidence Intervals in a Tax Microsimulation Model. Accessible from Data originally sourced from Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Microsimulation Model (version 0319-1), developed at the Urban Institute, and made available under the ODC-BY 1.0 Attribution License.